Friday, June 17, 2011

Egypt's Second Revolution, Not a Democratic Leader in sight

As thousands of protesters return to Tahir Square and proclaim that the "Egyptian revolution is not over", it appears that the lack of a unifying leadership figure for the movement may doom the average Egyptians' hope for a truly democratic, liberty loving future.


The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's best organized political force, is opposing a renewal of protests, throwing in with the military and urging patience as plans for a September election proceed.  They stand to make major gains in this election as they are the most organized political group remaining.  The Brotherhood, with a huge network of social services and supporters, hopes to emerge from any parliamentary election with control of the country. 

Resisting this, four liberal and secular groups called for postponing the September elections, and drafting basic principles that guarantee that Egypt is a civil state and ending military tribunals. This reflects worries of many political groups that the Brotherhood is poised to win a big portion of any parliament.

As I said in my February blog, the military does have long to show a clear reformist agenda.  But, without clear leadership, the protesters leave a gaping hole that is just waiting to be filled.  My guess is this role will indeed be filled by the Brotherhood.  It is unfortunate because the Brotherhood will not provide the leadership that the protesters crave, but represent what is essentially a totalitarian organization with dreams of power.

When it comes to revolutions, though they may snowball as movements of popular unrest, with grandiose goals and designs, strong leadership must assert itself if the ultimate aims of the revolutionaries are to be realized.  Leaders can unify the people and give a voice to their needs and concerns. Leaders can bring a cohesiveness to otherwise fractured groups and map a way forward that focuses the energy of the people.

For the average Egyptian I hope a real, Liberty loving leader emerges, but I suspect that the Muslim Brotherhood is to well organized and entrenched to be denied.