Saturday, February 19, 2011

Egypt's Revolution without a Leader

The demands for political reform sweeping across the Middle East are characterized by a lack of centralized command and control.  The protests appear to have spontaneously erupted from a background of simmering unrest but lack the organizing influence of a clearly identifiable  leader.


Therefore it is not surprising that numerous groups are suddenly jockeying for position in Egypt hoping to emerge with the reigns of power firmly in their hands. It is also not surprising that the Egyptian Army has, for the moment at least, consolidated the functions of governing under its authority.

Despite being strongly anti-reformist the generals who now run Egypt positioned the military as friends of the people.  They took immediate steps to curb abuses by the police state authorities and had military personnel mingling with the throngs of protesters even as they monitored them.  Thus the army established itself the sole governing agency with the people's best interests at heart.  And as with all groups, leaders are selected or emerge because they are viewed as having views, desires, wishes, and dreams that identify and connect well with the group.  Deposing Hosni Mubarak made the military instant heroes of the people.

But the next trick will be much harder.  The revolutionary's didn't pour into the streets fighting to displace one dictator with another. And now, with each passing day, opposition groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, continue to build a case showing that the people's best interests lay somewhere other than with Field Marshal Mohamad Tantawi, the head of the Egyptian Higher Military Council. It is an easy bet that although the army insists it will hand power to civilians soon, it won't be until they are sure they can hang on to the lucrative privileges and wealth they have amassed after decades of authoritarian rule.

Thus, absent a popular leadership figure, don't count on a long honeymoon for the military.  As time wears on, expect more and more friction to grow between protesters and soldiers and if the generals feel threatened enough, expect a fresh outbreak of violence much worse than anything seen thus far.

In fact, absent a leader who can assure that the needs of each side can be met, its hard to envision a calm and peaceful end to this historic event.

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